2024 Toronto—St. Paul's federal by-election

A by-election was held in the federal riding of Toronto—St. Paul's in Ontario, Canada on June 24, 2024, following the resignation of incumbent Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett.

2024 Toronto—St. Paul's federal by-election

June 24, 2024 (2024-06-24)

Riding of Toronto—St. Paul's
Turnout43.52%
  First party Second party Third party
 
LPC
NDP
Candidate Don Stewart Leslie Church Amrit Parhar
Party Conservative Liberal New Democratic
Last election 25.30% 49.22% 16.83%
Popular vote 15,555 14,965 4,044
Percentage 42.08% 40.49% 10.94%
Swing 16.78 pp 8.73 pp 5.89 pp

MP before election

Carolyn Bennett
Liberal

Elected MP

Don Stewart
Conservative

The race was considered by some as a "referendum" on the premiership of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.[1][2] The election was won by Conservative Party candidate Don Stewart, making him the first Conservative MP since 1993 to represent the riding.

Background

The riding of Toronto—St. Paul's was vacated on January 16, 2024, following the resignation of Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett.[3][4] Bennett, most recently the Minister of Mental Health and Addictions and Associate Minister of Health in the government of Justin Trudeau, had held the seat since 1997.[5] The race was considered by some as a "referendum" on the premiership of Trudeau.[6][7]

Constituency

Prior to the by-election, Toronto—St. Paul's was considered a safe Liberal seat in Midtown, Toronto.[8] It had been held by the Liberals since the 1993 federal election.[9] The Government of Canada announced measures to protect the by-election from foreign interference.[10]

Candidates

The Conservative Party nominated Don Stewart on January 24. He works for the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization.[11][12] Stewart campaigned on the main tenets of the Conservative Party platform under Pierre Poilievre, including crime and support for Israel.[13]

Running for the Liberal nomination was Leslie Church, former chief of staff to Chrystia Freeland.[14] She later received formal approval to run for Liberal nomination in Toronto—St. Paul's in April 2024.[15] She ran against Emma Richardson, a senior advisor with Global Affairs Canada’s United Nations division.[16] The Liberal nomination was held on May 1 with Church winning the nomination.[17][18] In 2020, Church agreed to an ethics screen for being married to lobbyist "Sheamus Murphy..(who is) registered to lobby the Liberal government in relation to several major sectors with active policy files, including broadcasting, energy and pharmaceutical companies that are working on a COVID-19 vaccine."[19]

Other prospective candidates for the Liberal nomination who declined to run, included former Toronto city councillor Josh Colle; former Ontario MPP Eric Hoskins, who represented the area provincially from 2009 to 2018 and previously served in the provincial cabinets of Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne, including as Minister of Health and Long-Term Care from 2014 to 2018; and Toronto city councillor Josh Matlow, who has represented the area municipally since 2010; Matlow ultimately decided not to run.[14][20][21] With his riding set to merge with Scarborough Centre at the next election, Don Valley East MP Michael Coteau was seen as a potential candidate, in order to avoid a nomination battle with fellow Liberal MP Salma Zahid; Coteau ultimately declined to run.[20][22]

The Rhinoceros Party announced that Sean Carson would be the candidate on January 13.[23]

The NDP announced on April 17 that Amrit Parhar would be the candidate. She works as the Director of Programs at the Institute for Change Leaders, an organization that was founded by Toronto mayor, Olivia Chow.[24] It was previously reported two days earlier by The Hill Times that MPP for Toronto—St. Paul's, Jill Andrew was considering seeking the nomination.[25]

On May 17, the Centrist Party announced Ali Mohiuddin as their candidate.[26]

On May 24, the Green Party announced that Christian Cullis, a constituent coordinator for Ward 11 city councillor Dianne Saxe, would be their candidate.[27] Emma Richardson, who previously lost the Liberal nomination, also sought the Green Party nomination.[28]

On May 28, the People's Party announced that Dennis Wilson would be their candidate.[29]

The Longest Ballot Committee, a political movement focused on electoral reform in opposition to first-past-the-post-voting, and supporting proportional representation,[30] targeted this by-election.[31] This yielded a record 84 candidates, breaking the previous record of 48 set in the Winnipeg South Centre by-election of June 19, 2023.[32] The resulting ballot papers were nearly a metre (yard) long, requiring temporary changes to the Elections Act due to their unprecedented size.[33] One candidate, Félix-Antoine Hamel received 0 votes in the election, and is believed to be the first candidate to receive 0 votes in an election in Canadian history. He could not vote for himself, as he did not live in the riding.[34]

Opinion polls

No public opinion polls were released before election day. The day after the election, Mainstreet Research released a poll they conducted during the writ period. They did not release the poll during the writ period due to a lack of confidence in the sample.[35]

Evolution of voting intentions at riding level
Polling firm Last day
of survey
Source CPC LPC NDP GPC PPC Other Undecided ME Sample
By-election 2024 June 24, 2024 42.08 40.49 10.94 2.87 0.63 2.99 36,962
Mainstreet June 2024 [36] 41 39 11 4 2 2 11 256
Election 2021 September 20, 2021 25.30 49.22 16.83 5.99 2.67 53,698

Results

Canadian federal by-election, June 24, 2024: Toronto—St. Paul's
Resignation of Carolyn Bennett
** Preliminary results — Not yet official **
Party Candidate Votes%±%
ConservativeDon Stewart15,55542.08+16.78
LiberalLeslie Church14,96540.49-8.73
New DemocraticAmrit Parhar4,04410.94-5.89
GreenChristian Cullis1,0592.87-3.12
People'sDennis Wilson2340.63-2.03
IndependentJonathan Schachter970.26
IndependentMário Stocco820.22
Marxist–LeninistMeñico Turcotte570.15
RhinocerosSean Carson510.14
IndependentThibaud Mony490.13
No AffiliationStephen Davis450.12
IndependentGlen MacDonald420.11
IndependentMélodie Anderson400.11
IndependentDemetrios Karavas380.10
IndependentJordan Wong310.08
MarijuanaDanny Légaré290.08
IndependentAlex Banks280.08
CentristAli Mohiuddin270.07
IndependentJaël Champagne Gareau230.06
IndependentJohn Dale180.05
IndependentJoshua Bram Hieu Pham180.05
IndependentMichael Bednarski170.05
IndependentPierre Larochelle170.05
IndependentMarie-Hélène LeBel170.05
IndependentGuillaume Paradis170.05
IndependentCharles Currie130.04
IndependentDaniel Andrew Graham130.04
IndependentJulie St-Amand130.04
IndependentLoren Hicks120.03
IndependentPierre Granger110.03
IndependentBlake Hamilton110.03
IndependentMatéo Martin110.03
IndependentErle Stanley Bowman100.03
IndependentCory Deville100.03
IndependentAlexandra Engering100.03
IndependentDaniel Stuckless100.03
IndependentLine Bélanger90.02
IndependentMark Dejewski90.02
IndependentAnthony Hamel90.02
IndependentAgnieszka Marszalek90.02
IndependentPascal St-Amand90.02
IndependentMarthaLee Aykroyd80.02
IndependentSébastien CoRhino80.02
IndependentDaniel Gagnon80.02
IndependentOlivier Renaud80.02
IndependentPatrick Strzalkowski80.02
IndependentDonald Gagnon70.02
IndependentKevin Krisa70.02
IndependentBenjamin Teichman70.02
IndependentMyriam Beaulieu60.02
IndependentKubera Desai60.02
IndependentDonovan Eckstrom60.02
IndependentLorant Polya60.02
IndependentRoger Sherwood60.02
IndependentElliot Wand60.02
IndependentMichal Wieczorek60.02
IndependentMaxime Boivin50.01
IndependentMartin Acetaria Caesar Jubinville50.01
IndependentLéthycia-Félix Corriveau40.01
IndependentYsack Dupont40.01
IndependentDji-Pé Frazer40.01
IndependentZornitsa Halacheva40.01
IndependentKrzysztof Krzywinski40.01
IndependentAlain Lamontagne40.01
IndependentRenée Lemieux40.01
IndependentDanimal Preston40.01
IndependentSpencer Rocchi40.01
IndependentYogo Shimada40.01
IndependentDarcy Vanderwater40.01
IndependentMylène Bonneau30.01
IndependentJean-Denis Parent Boudreault30.01
IndependentAlain Bourgault30.01
IndependentGuillaume Gagnier-Michel30.01
IndependentKerri Hildebrandt30.01
IndependentConnie Lukawski30.01
IndependentWallace Richard Rowat30.01
IndependentGavin Vanderwater30.01
No AffiliationManon Marie Lili Desbiens20.01
IndependentGerrit Dogger20.01
IndependentSamuel Ducharme20.01
IndependentYusuf Kadir Nasihi20.01
IndependentWinston Neutel20.01
IndependentJacques Saintonge20.01
IndependentFelix-Antoine Hamel00.00
Total valid votes 36,962
Total rejected ballots
Turnout 43.52-21.96
Eligible voters 84,934
Conservative gain from Liberal Swing +12.76

2021 result

2021 Canadian federal election: Toronto—St. Paul's
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
LiberalCarolyn Bennett26,42949.22-5.09$88,807.52
ConservativeStephanie Osadchuk13,58725.30+3.69$26,751.24
New DemocraticSidney Coles[37]9,03616.83+1.05$31,250.09
GreenPhil De Luna3,2145.99-0.77$30,817.63
People'sPeter Remedios1,4322.67+1.12$1,412.77
Total valid votes/Expense limit 53,69898.93$112,245.61
Total rejected ballots 5801.07+0.43
Turnout 54,27865.48-4.91
Eligible voters 82,891
Liberal hold Swing -4.39
Source: Elections Canada[38]

See also

References

  1. Tasker, John Paul (June 20, 2024). "Toronto voters say federal byelection is a referendum on Justin Trudeau's future". CBC. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  2. MacCharles, Tonda (June 15, 2024). "This isn't just another byelection in Toronto — it might reveal the future for Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre. Here's what's at stake". Toronto Star. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  3. Rabson, Mia (December 12, 2023). "Carolyn Bennett stepping down as Liberal MP for Toronto-St. Paul's after 26 years". The Canadian Press. Retrieved December 22, 2023.
  4. "The Hon. Carolyn Bennett, P.C., M.P." Library of Parliament. Retrieved January 16, 2024.
  5. "Liberal minister Carolyn Bennett announces she will not stand for re-election". CTV News. Ottawa. The Canadian Press. July 24, 2023. Retrieved May 24, 2024.
  6. Tasker, John Paul (June 20, 2024). "Toronto voters say federal byelection is a referendum on Justin Trudeau's future". CBC News. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  7. MacCharles, Tonda (June 15, 2024). "This isn't just another byelection in Toronto — it might reveal the future for Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre. Here's what's at stake". Toronto Star. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  8. "Federal byelection announced for June 24 in Toronto St. Paul's riding". CTV News. The Canadian Press. May 19, 2024.
  9. Lamba, Abhiraj (May 22, 2024). "Trudeau announces date for Toronto—St. Paul's byelection". Toronto Star.
  10. "Government of Canada announces measures to protect Toronto-St. Paul's by-election from foreign interference". www.canada.ca. May 21, 2024. Retrieved May 24, 2024.
  11. Conservative Party of Canada [@CPC_HQ] (February 15, 2024). "Welcome your Toronto—St. Paul's candidate" (Tweet). Retrieved April 18, 2024 via Twitter.
  12. "Nomination Contest Database". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 17, 2024.
  13. "Conservative surge combined with ballot confusion could crack a Liberal stronghold in Toronto byelection". CTVNews. June 21, 2024. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
  14. Rana, Abbas; Jeffery, Stephen (December 18, 2023). "Toronto-St. Paul's byelection could be 'first test' of Jewish voters' reaction to Canada's UN vote on Israel-Hamas war, say political insiders". The Hill Times. Retrieved December 22, 2023.
  15. Vigliotti, Marco (April 22, 2024). "Leslie Church receives formal approval to run for Liberal nomination in Toronto-St. Paul's: sources". iPolitics. Retrieved April 25, 2024.
  16. Vigliotti, Marco (April 25, 2024). "Leslie Church expected to easily win Liberal nomination in Toronto-St. Paul's on Tuesday: sources". iPolitics. Retrieved April 25, 2024.
  17. Duguid, Terry; Martinez Ferrada, Soraya. "Liberal Nomination Meeting – Toronto—St. Paul's". Liberal Party of Canada. Archived from the original on April 25, 2024. Retrieved April 25, 2024.
  18. "Liberal Party of Canada announces Leslie Church as Team Trudeau candidate for Toronto–St. Paul's" (Press release). Toronto, ON: Liberal Party of Canada. May 1, 2024. Archived from the original on May 2, 2024. Retrieved May 1, 2024.
  19. Curry, Bill (November 10, 2020). "Chrystia Freeland's policy adviser agrees to ethics screen related to lobbyist spouse". The Globe and Mail.
  20. Vigliotti, Marco (January 25, 2024). "Liberals still considering candidates for Toronto-St. Paul's byelection". iPolitics. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  21. Matlow, Josh [@JoshMatlow] (February 23, 2024). "After a lot of consideration, I've decided not to run for parliament at this point in my life. I'm excited about this new chapter at city hall, and my focus remains on our city. My family is rooted in Toronto and my daughter will only have one childhood, which I'm not prepared…"" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  22. Vigliotti, Marco (January 19, 2024). "Coteau won't run in Toronto-St. Paul's byelection". iPolitics. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  23. Parti Rhinocéros Party (January 13, 2024). "Candidate announcement for by-elections in Durham and Toronto St. Paul !!!". Facebook. Retrieved January 22, 2024.
  24. Toronto-St. Paul's NDP [@stpaulsndp] (April 17, 2024). "We are so proud to announce Amrit Parhar as our nomination candidate for the upcoming by-election in TSP!" (Tweet). Retrieved April 17, 2024 via Twitter.
  25. Rana, Abbas (April 15, 2024). "Poor polling numbers, NDP MPP's rumoured candidacy, and Mideast conflict turns Toronto-St. Paul's, Ont., byelection into tight three-way race, say Liberal MPs". The Hill Times. Retrieved April 27, 2024.
  26. Centrist Party of Canada [@CentristCa] (May 17, 2024). "Ali Mohiuddin is the nomination candidate of the #Centrist Party for Toronto St. Paul's riding By-election" (Tweet). Archived from the original on May 17, 2024. Retrieved May 17, 2024 via Twitter.
  27. "Christian Cullis to run in Toronto-St Paul's" (Press release). Green Party of Canada. May 24, 2024. Retrieved May 25, 2024.
  28. "Emma Richardson for Toronto—St. Paul's". Archived from the original on May 15, 2024. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
  29. Bernier, Maxime [@MaximeBernier] (May 28, 2024). "If you live in Toronto, support our PPC candidate Dennis Wilson!" (Tweet). Retrieved May 28, 2024 via Twitter.
  30. Tasker, John Paul (June 25, 2024). "Conservatives win longtime Liberal stronghold Toronto-St. Paul's in shock byelection result". CBC News. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
  31. Passifiume, Bryan (December 27, 2023). "Long ballot activists planning to make short work of Toronto byelection". National Post.
  32. "List of candidates: Toronto--St. Paul's (Ontario) By-Election (Monday, June 24, 2024)". Elections Canada. June 3, 2024.
  33. Major, Darren (June 14, 2024). "Record 84 candidates on a near metre-long ballot in upcoming byelection". Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
  34. Major, Darren (June 27, 2024). "Meet the first federal candidate in Canadian history to lose an election with zero votes". Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved June 27, 2024.
  35. "All eyes on Toronto-St. Paul's".
  36. @quito_maggi (June 25, 2024). "Here's that @MainStResearch poll we did after advance polls" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  37. "Toronto NDP candidate resigns after discovery of controversial social media posts". CP24. September 15, 2021.
  38. "Official Voting Results". Elections Canada. Retrieved June 21, 2024.
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