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It is very easy to imagine something, speculate something, think about something, or propose something. It is also easy to doubt something that defies common sense if there is no consequence for it. It is much harder to act on it. As Peirce would say, “Let us not pretend to doubt in philosophy what we do not doubt in our hearts.”

Many hypotheses in philosophy, because they contain no immediate consequence for believing in them, are easily proposed and speculated upon. But would anyone act on them given a punishment?

Suppose you were proposed the question: “Is the world a simulation?” If you were right, you go to a blissful paradise for eternity. If you were wrong, you would be entered into an eternal pit of fire. Would any person bet “yes”? Would you bet yes for the question “Is naturalism true?”, “Are other minds real?”, “Does consciousness supervene on the physical?” etc etc?

Whichever way you bet, is the alternative really an actual belief of yours or just mental masturbation? Does imagining consequences, for lack of a better term, help you cut through the bullshit of your own mind?

  • this has come up before. not you this time. anyway, i doubt think many philosophical ideas are worth dying for –  Aug 30 '23 at 00:05
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    I should say that if someone bases their epistemology on fear of pain and suffering, then they are both craven and evil, for they have exalted an idealized form of torment as their standard of mental action, and mentally acted out of fear of achieving their ideal. So hypocrisy too, perhaps... – Kristian Berry Aug 30 '23 at 00:45
  • It is not so much the fear but rather an emotional impulse that lets you understand the core of your beliefs. @KristianBerry. One can imagine an eternal reward instead of the fear which can serve as a similar impulse –  Aug 30 '23 at 01:07
  • wow @KristianBerry heavy language, though i may agree. –  Aug 30 '23 at 01:08
  • idt that's what they were implying @thinkingman but that fear shouldn't stop you believing what bet you would make (i assume these aren't forced bets) –  Aug 30 '23 at 01:19
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    @thinkingman if a reward is in view, then perhaps they are merely feeble-minded, then. On the side, I would bring up Sayre's law, whereby people seem to generate a system of perverse incentives for aggressively debating abstract topics. This even if we can doubt the existence of disagreement, then (though, to be cautious, I would not suppose that all disagreement is illusory, or else I would be playing the groomer game, trying to get someone to go along with my wiles on the grounds that "you want to anyway, don't you?"). – Kristian Berry Aug 30 '23 at 01:25
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    By this standard we might as well admit we don't know anything. Would you bet against an eternity in a pit of fire that you know your true birth name or your date of birth ? It seems the stakes are too high to allow for balanced consideration. On the other hand, i'm pretty ready to bet my belief in materialism on my engagement in favor of restaurative justice. – armand Aug 30 '23 at 03:54
  • Yes I would. As long as the punishment is equal on each side, I would bet that my name is right. It’s betting for and against, not just against. –  Aug 30 '23 at 04:12
  • well, that's a bold move to say the least... – armand Aug 30 '23 at 05:05
  • I am betting that God doesn't put us in such a position. – Scott Rowe Aug 30 '23 at 10:53

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This has come up before, a forced wager. It may say something that, while all the evidence points to me not being followed or conspired against, my heart would tell me to wager I were, if forced to bet either way. Of course, this is a highly idealised and supernatural scenario, which may not reflect my true beliefs, because you allow all sorts of supernatural claims in through the window (the importance of love, e.g..). Whereas if something material hinged on it, I might wager differently, but then that's a scenario that might end up backing up the paranoia (if I'm being kidnapped and tortured then wouldn't that suggest a conspiracy against me?).

So I think your thought experiment isn't clean enough.

You may also want to look into Christian, at least (I don't think you are meant to want a reward in some religions), martyrdom.