Bayesian reasoning is a probabilistic approach to inductive and abductive reasoning, based on Bayes' rule, that posits when one event implies a second event is likely, that given the second event occurring, that increases the likelihood of the first event.
Questions tagged [bayesian]
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Does an improbable outcome under a known hypothesis increase the probability of an alternative hypothesis?
Suppose you observe a claimed psychic get 10 guesses right after he says he will guess a number between 1 and 10 that you’re thinking of.
After this happens, should your credence in psychism increase? What about after 200? Or 1000?
Intuitively, it…
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