2024 United States presidential election in Missouri
The 2024 United States presidential election in Missouri is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Missouri voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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| Elections in Missouri |
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A nigh-infallible bellwether state for a century from 1904 to 2004 (only backing the losing candidate only in 1956 being by 0.22% and less than 4,000 votes), Missouri has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000 and is widely understood to have lost its bellwether status when Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois failed to carry the state in either of his presidential victories, followed by Republican Donald Trump carrying it by more than 15% in both of his election bids. As a state located almost entirely in the conservative Bible Belt, Missouri has drifted away from being a political bellwether towards the Republican Party in the 21st century and thus is today a strongly red state, with Republicans occupying every statewide office since 2023. The state is once again predicted to be securely won by the Republican candidate in 2024.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3]
Primary elections
Republican caucuses
The Missouri Republican caucuses was held on March 2, 2024, alongside the Republican caucuses in Idaho and Michigan.
| Candidate | State delegates | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||||
| Donald Trump | 924 | 100.00 | 54 | 0 | 54 | ||
| Nikki Haley | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| David Stuckenberg | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 924 | 100 | 54 | 0 | 54 | ||
| Source: [4][5] | |||||||
Democratic primary
The Missouri Democratic primary was held on March 23, 2024, alongside the Democratic primary in Louisiana.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 16,295 | 85.3% | 61 | ||
| Uncommitted | 2,229 | 11.7% | 3 | ||
| Marianne Williamson | 298 | 1.6% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 178 | 0.9% | |||
| Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) | 40 | 0.2% | |||
| Jason Palmer | 36 | 0.2% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 24 | 0.1% | |||
| Total: | 19,100 | 100.0% | 64 | 6 | 70 |
| Source: [6] | |||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[7] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Solid R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[11] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[12] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[13] | Solid R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[14] | Likely R | June 11, 2024 |
Polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | June 17–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 40% | 7% |
| Emerson College | January 23–28, 2024 | 1,830 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 49% | 32% | 19% |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout | October 10–11, 2023 | 806 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA | October 27 – November 1, 2022 | 991 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 34% | 14% |
| Emerson College | October 26–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 37% | 9% |
| Emerson College | September 23–27, 2022 | 1,160 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 37% | 12% |
| SurveyUSA | September 14–18, 2022 | 830 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 52% | 35% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,981 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 35% | 14% |
| SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 35% | 15% |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout | September 18–20, 2021 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 55% | 36% | 9% |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout | April 21–22, 2021 | 933 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 38% | 9% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | June 17–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 35% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
References
- Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
- Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- "AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Missouri's GOP caucuses". ABC News. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
- "Missouri primary results". Associated Press. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
- "Missouri Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 22, 2024.
- "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.