2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
The 2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Wisconsin voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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| Elections in Wisconsin |
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A former Blue Wall state and a clearly purple state today, the last presidential Republican to win Wisconsin by double digits was fellow Midwesterner Dwight D. Eisenhower; the last one to win the state twice was Ronald Reagan; and the only presidential candidates to carry the state by double digits after 1956 were Democrats Bill Clinton and Barack Obama (the latter representing neighboring Illinois) in 1996 and 2008, respectively. In 2016, Donald Trump very narrowly won Wisconsin by 0.77% in his surprise sweep of the Midwest and Rust Belt, becoming the first Republican since Reagan in his 1984 landslide to win the state's electoral votes; but in 2020, Democrat Joe Biden flipped Wisconsin back into the blue column by an even more narrow 0.63%. Given the state's competitive electoral history coupled with its nearly even partisan lean, Wisconsin is considered to be a crucial battleground in 2024, with all major news organizations marking the state as a tossup.[2]
Incumbent president Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3] The Wisconsin Green Party has attained ballot access after not appearing in 2020.[4]
In a May interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Trump suggested he would not accept the 2024 election results in Wisconsin, and repeated claims that he won the state in 2020.[5]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Wisconsin Democratic primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside contests in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 512,379 | 88.6% | 82 | 82 | |
| Uninstructed | 48,373 | 8.4% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 17,730 | 3.1% | |||
| Total: | 578,482 | 100.0% | 82 | 13 | 95 |
| Source: [6] | |||||
Republican primary
The Wisconsin Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside contests in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 477,103 | 78.97% | 41 | 0 | 0 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 76,841 | 12.72% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 20,124 | 3.33% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uninstructed | 13,057 | 2.16% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 9,771 | 1.62% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 5,200 | 0.86% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Write-ins | 2,081 | 0.34% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 604,177 | 100.00% | 41 | 0 | 41 |
| Source: [7] | |||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[8] | Tossup | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Tossup | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Tossup | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Tossup | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[12] | Tossup | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[13] | Tossup | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[14] | Lean R (flip) | June 24, 2024 |
| 538[15] | Tossup | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[16] | Tossup | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University Law School | June 12–20, 2024 | 871 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| 871 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 50%[lower-alpha 2] | 50% | – | ||
| 784 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 44% | 9% | ||
| 784 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51%[lower-alpha 2] | 49% | – | ||
| Emerson College | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49%[lower-alpha 2] | 51% | – | ||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | May 30–31, 2024 | 338 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 40% | 38% | 22%[lower-alpha 3] |
| 290 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 40% | 41% | 19%[lower-alpha 4] | ||
| Prime Group[upper-alpha 1] | May 9–16, 2024 | 488 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | May 7–13, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | May 6–13, 2024 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% | ||
| Quinnipiac University | May 2–6, 2024 | 1,457 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48%[lower-alpha 2] | 52% | – | ||
| CBS News/YouGov | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,226 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Fox News | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,198 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Marquette University Law School | April 3–10, 2024 | 814 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 51% | – |
| 736 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 51% | – | ||
| North Star Opinion Research[upper-alpha 2] | April 6–9, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights[upper-alpha 3] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Emerson College/The Hill | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48%[lower-alpha 2] | 52% | – | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–14, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Emerson College | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Kaplan Strategies | February 23, 2024 | 941 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| Marquette University Law School | January 24–31, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| 808 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 50% | 1% | ||
| Fox News | January 26–30, 2024 | 1,172 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 681 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| J.L. Partners | November 27 – December 1, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Emerson College | October 30 - November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| 819 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 45% | 10% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Marquette University Law School | October 26 – November 2, 2023 | 908 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 48% | 1% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 5–10, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 532 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 40% | 42% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 4] | September 25–26, 2023 | 673 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Prime Group[upper-alpha 5] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 53% | 47% | – |
| 500 (RV) | – | 37% | 40% | 23%[lower-alpha 5] | ||
| Marquette University Law School | June 8–13, 2023 | 913 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 52% | 43% | 4% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | April 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 43% | 9% |
| Emerson College | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Emerson College | September 16–18, 2022 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 6] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 52% | 6% |
| Marquette University Law School | October 26–31, 2021 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University Law School | June 12–20, 2024 | 871 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 43% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 3%[lower-alpha 6] |
| 784 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 44% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2%[lower-alpha 7] | ||
| Emerson College | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 7% |
| J.L. Partners | June 5–10, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 44% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Prime Group[upper-alpha 1] | May 9–16, 2024 | 488 (RV) | – | 44% | 44% | 7% | 3% | 2% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | May 7–13, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | May 6–13, 2024 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 38% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 14%[lower-alpha 8] |
| 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 40% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 13%[lower-alpha 8] | ||
| Quinnipiac University | May 2–6, 2024 | 1,457 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 4% | 4% |
| Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Fox News | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,198 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 41% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 44% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| Marquette University Law School | April 3–10, 2024 | 814 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 40% | 41% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 736 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 41% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | ||
| North Star Opinion Research[upper-alpha 2] | April 6–9, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 37% | 13% | 2% | 4% | 9% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Emerson College/The Hill | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–14, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Emerson College | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 41% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| Marquette University Law School | January 24–31, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 37% | 40% | 16% | 2% | 4% | 1% |
| 808 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 39% | 41% | 13% | 2% | 4% | 1% | ||
| Fox News | January 26–30, 2024 | 1,172 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 43% | 10% | 0% | 2% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 681 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 40% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 13% |
| J.L. Partners/Daily Mail | November 27 – December 1, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 37% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 12%[lower-alpha 9] |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 Insights[upper-alpha 7] | June 11–20, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | 4% | 9% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | May 30–31, 2024 | 338 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 38% | 31% | 13% | 18% |
| 290 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 40% | 35% | 12% | 13% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 37% | 35% | 22% | 6% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 13% | 2% | 11% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/YouGov | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,226 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 48% | 8% | 0% |
Hypothetical polling
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University Law School | January 24–31, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 57% | 2% |
| 808 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 57% | 1% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 39% | 53% | 8% |
| Marquette University Law School | October 26 – November 2, 2023 | 908 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 53% | 3% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Marquette University Law School | October 26 – November 2, 2023 | 908 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 50% | 1% |
| Marquette University Law School | June 8–13, 2023 | 913 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | April 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Another candidate" with 12%
- "Another candidate" with 11%
- No Labels candidate
- Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
- Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
- "Someone else" with 12%
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump
- Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
- Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
- Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates
References
- Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
- Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- D'Andrea, Robert (February 9, 2024). "Green Party candidate will appear on Wisconsin's presidential ballot". WPR. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
- Piper, Jessica (May 2, 2024). "Trump suggests he won't accept 2024 election results in Wisconsin". Politico. Retrieved May 3, 2024.
- "Wisconsin Presidential Primary". The AP. May 7, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
- "Wisconsin Presidential Primary". Dave Leip's Atlas. May 7, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
- "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
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